Gebrehiwot Bayikedagn
It has been a few years since the role of China in Africa, particularly in the Horn of Africa (HOA), has gained prominence. China’s cost-effective methods, focus on vital infrastructure development, and non-interference in internal affairs have propelled its economic dominance in Africa’s development agenda. While China has taken care of Africa’s economic needs, the political landscape has largely been shaped by the ideologies and support of the United States and Europe since the end of the Soviet Union. However, a shift in this dynamic seems to be underway, with Russia now turning its focus towards Africa, including the HOA.
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been seeking strategic partners in the southern hemisphere, recognizing the importance of the HOA as Africa’s gateway to Eurasia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been on a series of visits to African nations, both large and small, garnering attention and celebration from host nations. His recent visits to Burundi, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Uganda demonstrate Russia’s growing engagement in the HOA.
Moreover, preparations are underway for a Russia-Africa summit, signaling Russia’s intent to establish itself as a significant player in the region. The attention given to the president of Eritrea during his visit to Moscow further highlights the importance Russia places on its relationship with African nations, particularly in the HOA.
The reasons for Russia’s visits to African nations can be summarized as follows: solidarity, healthcare cooperation, peacekeeping and conflict resolution, and support for nuclear power. Russia emphasizes its respect for the sovereignty of each nation and seeks to work as an equal partner.
Russia’s interests in the HOA can be broadly categorized into three areas. Firstly, there is an economic interest, which encompasses cooperation in sectors such as oil, natural resources, healthcare, and nuclear power. Russia, with its vast reserves of oil, iron ore, and timber, can meet the HOA’s needs for economic growth. As Russia faces declining markets in the West, it looks to shift its focus to the south.
Secondly, military cooperation is a significant area of interest for Russia in the HOA. The region faces numerous security challenges, and Russia, as a major producer of military equipment, can offer affordable solutions to address these concerns. Russia’s relative success in combating groups like Boko Haram in western Africa gives it leverage in the HOA’s fight against groups like Al-Shabab.
Lastly, there is a political interest for Russia in forming alliances with African nations, as it faces increasing isolation on the world stage due to Western institutions’ actions. The HOA, home to organizations like IGAD, AU, and EAC, presents an opportunity for Russia to establish new partnerships and expand its influence.
While economic and political interests hold some value, it is the military aspect that carries the most weight for Russia in the HOA. With a population of two hundred million, multiple stakeholders, ongoing conflicts, and economically disadvantaged nations lacking significant political leverage, the military dimension offers Russia substantial opportunities.
The HOA may witness a military approach akin to China’s economic platform, but only time will reveal what the future holds. For now, it is up to the HOA states to assess the situation, seize the opportunities, and mitigate associated risks.
