How The Israel-Hamas Conflict affects Africa countries

By: Yinebeb Bahru

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has not only caused a humanitarian tragedy but also posed a potential threat to the stability and prosperity of the global economy. As the conflict escalates, African countries may face various challenges and opportunities concerning trade, energy, security, and diplomacy.

Trade

One of the main impacts of the conflict is the disruption of trade flows in the Middle East, a crucial region for Africa’s exports and imports. According to the World Bank, Africa’s trade with the Middle East amounted to $117 billion in 2020, accounting for 9.4% of the continent’s total trade. The primary products traded include oil, gas, metals, chemicals, food, and machinery.

The conflict could affect the supply and demand of these products, along with transportation costs and risks. For example, the Suez Canal, connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, is a vital route for Africa’s trade with Europe and Asia. The canal handles about 10% of global maritime trade and approximately 22% of container traffic. Any disruption or closure of the canal due to the conflict could have serious consequences for Africa’s trade volumes and prices.

Another critical point is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The strait is a strategic chokepoint for oil shipments from the Persian Gulf to Europe and North America. About 6.2 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the strait in 2018. The conflict could increase the risk of attacks or blockades by militant groups or naval forces in the strait, affecting Africa’s oil exports and imports.

Energy

Another major impact of the conflict is the volatility of oil and gas prices in the global market. The Middle East is the largest producer and exporter of oil and gas in the world, accounting for about 40% of global oil production and 30% of global gas production. The conflict could disrupt the production and supply of these resources, creating uncertainty and speculation in the market.

The volatility of oil and gas prices could have different effects on African countries, depending on their status as net exporters or importers of these resources. For net exporters, such as Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Egypt, and Ghana, higher prices could boost their revenues and foreign exchange reserves. However, they could also face lower demand from their trading partners who may seek alternative sources or reduce their consumption. For net importers, such as South Africa, Kenya, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Tanzania, higher prices could increase their energy costs and inflation rates. However, they could also benefit from lower transportation costs if they source their energy from nearby regions or domestic sources.

Security

A third impact of the conflict is the spillover of violence and instability in the region. The Middle East is already plagued by several conflicts and crises, such as the civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Iraq, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and humanitarian disasters in Lebanon and Afghanistan. The conflict between Israel and Hamas could exacerbate these situations or trigger new ones, creating more refugees, migrants, terrorists, arms dealers, smugglers, and human traffickers.

The spillover of violence and instability could pose various security challenges for African countries. Extremist groups could exploit the situation to advance their agendas, potentially escalating violence and further destabilizing the region. For example, The conflict has the potential to exacerbate security challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. Extremist groups could exploit the situation to advance their agendas, potentially escalating violence and further destabilizing the region. For example, Kenya is concerned that some terror groups, such as Al-Shabaab, may conduct attacks in solidarity with Hamas to remain relevant and challenge global peace and security. Al-Shabaab is a Somalia-based group that has been fighting against the Somali government and its allies, including Kenya. Kenya has been a target of several attacks by Al-Shabaab in the past, such as the Westgate Mall siege in 2013, the Garissa University massacre in 2015, and the Dusit Hotel Complex assault in 2019.  This adds a layer of complexity to an already intricate security landscape.

Another concern is the influx of refugees and migrants from the Middle East to Africa, which could strain the resources and capacities of African countries. According to the United Nations, there are about 5.7 million refugees from Syria, 4.7 million from Palestine, 3.6 million from Yemen, 1.4 million from Iraq, and 1.2 million from Afghanistan in the world. Some of these refugees may seek asylum or transit in African countries, especially those that are close to the region or have historical or cultural ties with them. Some of these countries include Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and South Africa.

Diplomacy

A fourth impact of the conflict is the diplomatic pressure and opportunities for African countries. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has divided the international community into different camps and coalitions. Some countries support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas’ attacks, while others condemn Israel’s disproportionate use of force and violations of human rights and international law. Some countries call for an immediate ceasefire and a peaceful resolution of the conflict, while others advocate for a more active intervention or mediation role.

The diplomatic pressure and opportunities for African countries depend on their relations and interests with the parties involved in the conflict. For example, some African countries have established or restored diplomatic ties with Israel in recent years, such as Morocco, Sudan, Malawi, Chad, Guinea, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and South Sudan. These countries may face pressure from Israel or its allies to support its position or actions in the conflict. They may also face criticism or backlash from Hamas or its allies for their perceived betrayal or complicity. On the other hand, these countries may also benefit from Israel’s economic and security cooperation and assistance.

Another consideration is some African countries that have maintained or strengthened diplomatic ties with Palestine or its supporters in recent years, such as South Africa, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Senegal, Nigeria, Mali, Niger, Mauritania, Somalia, Djibouti, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, and Angola. These countries may face pressure from Palestine or its allies to condemn Israel’s aggression or violations in the conflict. They may also face criticism or backlash from Israel or its allies for their perceived hostility or bias. However, these countries may also benefit from Palestine’s political and moral support and solidarity.

A third scenario is some African countries that have adopted a neutral or balanced stance on the conflict, such as Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Benin, Togo, Cameroon, Gabon, Congo, Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. These countries may face pressure from both sides of the conflict to take a clear position or action in the conflict. They may also face criticism or backlash from both sides for their perceived indecision or ambiguity. However, these countries may also have an opportunity to play a constructive role in facilitating dialogue or mediation between the parties.

In conclusion, the conflict between Israel and Hamas is not only a regional issue but also a global one, affecting the interests and values of many countries and people worldwide. African countries are no exception. They have to address the economic and social impacts of the conflict in various ways and make diplomatic choices and actions that reflect their national interests and principles. The conflict presents both a challenge and an opportunity for African countries to demonstrate their leadership and responsibility on the international stage.

Summary

The conflict has caused a humanitarian tragedy and poses a potential threat to the global economy. It has impacted African countries in various ways, such as trade, energy, security, and diplomacy. African nations must navigate these impacts while demonstrating their leadership and responsibility in the international arena.

Conclusion

The conflict is a global issue, affecting the interests and values of many countries and people worldwide. African countries must face the challenges and opportunities presented by the conflict. It is a test of their leadership and responsibility on the international stage. African countries should collaborate to promote peace and stability in the Middle East while safeguarding and advancing their own interests and values.

Yinebeb Bahru: is a Training Associate for the Dutch-based consulting firm R&D Group Ethiopia office. He is passionate about technology, start-up’s, innovation, finance, writing analysis, political economics, geopolitical economy, research & development. The writer can be reached at: Yinebeb251@gmail.com.