On the Horizon: Afwerki and Ahmed’s Imminent Confrontation at Saudi Summit

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The Saudi-Africa Summit in Riyadh, a platform for dialogue and cooperation among African nations and Saudi Arabia, is set to witness a significant encounter between Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This meeting is particularly noteworthy given the recent tensions between the two leaders, exacerbated by Ethiopia’s aspirations for sea access.

President Afwerki’s presence at the summit follows a period of strained relations with Ethiopia, especially after the 2018 peace deal he signed with Prime Minister Ahmed. The deal initially raised hopes for sustainable peace but later faltered due to ongoing conflicts with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Eritrean government’s involvement in these conflicts, alongside Ethiopian forces, has been a point of contention, especially after reports of human rights violations by Eritrean soldiers in the Tigray region.

Moreover, President Afwerki’s regime faced sanctions from the European Union in March 2021 for human rights violations in Eritrea, which further complicated the geopolitical scenario. The Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed these sanctions as “baseless and offensive,” indicating a dismissive stance towards international criticism.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Ahmed has publicly acknowledged the presence of Eritrean forces in Tigray, expressing gratitude for their assistance but also emphasizing Ethiopia’s sovereignty and the need for the withdrawal of foreign forces. This statement and Ethiopia’s quest for sea access mark a delicate phase in the relations between these two Horn of Africa nations.

The Saudi-Africa Summit, therefore, presents a critical juncture for potential diplomatic engagement between President Afwerki and Prime Minister Ahmed. Their interactions could signal either a further deterioration or a possible reconciliation in their bilateral relations, with significant implications for regional stability and cooperation.

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