In the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, two narratives are concurrently unfolding: Ethiopia’s dwindling influence amidst internal strife and economic challenges, and Somalia’s gradual rise to prominence, buoyed by significant milestones in debt relief and military empowerment.
Ethiopia’s Diminishing Stature: A Nation Under Strain
Ethiopia’s position as a regional powerhouse is increasingly under threat. The nation’s challenges are multifaceted, spanning from internal conflicts to economic downturns. The protracted conflict in the Amhara region against armed groups like Fano has taken a severe toll, both in human and economic terms. This conflict, along with others, has exacerbated ethnic and regional tensions, stretching the government’s resources thin and undermining its ability to maintain national stability.
Economically, Ethiopia faces a critical juncture. The downgrading of its credit rating by Fitch Ratings to ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) status is a stark indicator of its financial woes. The failure to meet its Eurobond debt obligations reflects deep-rooted issues in fiscal management and external debt sustainability. This economic downturn, coupled with global economic pressures, presents severe challenges to the government’s reform agenda and development aspirations.
Furthermore, the recent quest for seaport access has strained relations with neighboring countries, particularly Eritrea. This aggressive stance, perceived as a potential threat to regional sovereignty and stability, has led to diplomatic isolation, further weakening Ethiopia’s regional influence.
Somalia’s Rising Profile: A Nation on the Mend
Conversely, Somalia, long perceived as a weaker state plagued by insurgency and instability, is showing signs of a remarkable turnaround. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank’s approval of $4.5 billion in debt forgiveness under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative marks a significant step towards economic rejuvenation. This debt relief not only lightens Somalia’s financial burden but also signals international confidence in the country’s reform processes and governance.
Additionally, the UN Security Council’s decision to lift the arms embargo on Somalia further bolsters its stature. This move empowers the Somali government to enhance its military capabilities, essential for maintaining internal security and combating insurgent groups like Al-Shabaab. It symbolizes a vote of confidence in the Somali government’s ability to responsibly manage its military affairs, a critical aspect of sovereign independence and regional influence.
The Balancing Act for Ethiopia
In this context, Ethiopia’s strategic initiative to gain maritime access via Somaliland, while a potential economic boon, comes at a time of heightened sensitivity. The MoU with Somaliland, potentially recognizing its independence in exchange for port access, is a bold move. However, it could provoke a strong response from Somalia, considering its territorial claim over Somaliland.
Ethiopia must now navigate a delicate balance. On one hand, it seeks to mitigate its landlocked limitations and economic vulnerabilities. On the other, it faces a region where power dynamics are shifting, with Somalia emerging as a more assertive and capable player. Ethiopia’s internal challenges – ranging from ethnic conflicts to economic hardships – further complicate its ability to project power and influence externally.
A New Era in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa is witnessing a significant realignment. Ethiopia, once the undisputed regional leader, now grapples with internal and external challenges that are eroding its dominant position. Meanwhile, Somalia is charting a course towards recovery and increased regional influence. This shift in power dynamics will have profound implications for the future of the region, potentially reshaping alliances, economic collaborations, and security strategies. For Ethiopia, adapting to this new reality, balancing its national aspirations with emerging regional powers, and addressing its internal vulnerabilities will be crucial in maintaining its relevance in the Horn of Africa.
Okay bigots! You heard it! You got the signal! Hello Minnesota! Hello Tennessee! Hello Michigan and Virginia! Hello Mr. Gourdie Down Under! Hello Oslo, Norway! The doors are now officially open for you in the two cities, one in Mogadishu and the other one, you know where! The dump sites in the two cities are now ready for you to scavenge. What are you waiting for? Make your reservation now!!! Once you fill up your bulging stomach at the dump sites you will be instrumental as guides and beasts of burden to the invincible armies of the two countries. One coming from the north and the other from the south they will meet up at Addis/Finfine. Then your 50-year old dream will come true and you will have your yanked away personal republic/fiefdom and a den of bigots! Those halawa drunk and super power wannabes in Al-Qahirah will send you some chum change and a few bags of rice. Let’s go!!!
Ethiopia despite having local issues it dares to exacerbate the HOAs regional Political and security dynamics that will cause an ever ending dispute, turmoil and turbulence if they move towards claiming Somalia’s Maritime border, as we know 1977s Ethiopia and Somalia Conflict strated from a border dispute that led Ethiopia to overtook our own land, but now the situation is not as it was before, we considere Ethiopia the Israel in East Africa and let’s see what they will get from claiming our on territory!.
What an idiot? You compare Ethiopia with lawless people.
Well written….but…
Abiy Ahmed’s Goverment move with the Somaliland MoU is not bold. It is stubidity and theft. Cause you come a house from the door not the Window. If you choose to enter from the Window you are theif – Degree of justice catches you by any means you cannot imagine.
Your Goverment can simply ENGAGE directly with the FGS and gain Maritime Access in proper channels/Negotiation without using dirty politics and provocation that fuels hatred and conflicts. No need. As you said a balance approach is the answer by just Engaging Formaly with the Regional Status not dealing with Governors for sake to get attention.
Mr. Ahmed’s Goverment will go down. Plenty of faulers in their plate. Pls noted it down.
M/r writer we Ethiopians don’t need war against our neighbors.But if one need aggressive we know how we communicate. The Government of Ethiopia may be seem weak.but everybody has to be understand the peoples of Ethiopia always brave and winner always.you can remember like THE BATTLE OF ADAWA.
And what do you think this will bring to your people in particular and the horn of Africa in general? Nothing but war and destruction which have been the hallmarks of that region for the past 60 and plus years. Tone down brother. The era of brutal primitive tribal wars is over. Ethiopia remains the giant of the horn of Africa no matter what.
No more need for brutal primitive tribal wars anymore. We need peace and safety for the people of the Horn of Africa
Addis Insight is puerly has no sight. Comparing The East Africa rising shine Ethiopia to Somilia? You are reducluing your self. What a shame !!
I second the AU chairperson’s call for calm. But this MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland is not the first port deal. The port service giant DP World of Dubai owns the Berbera facility since 2016 and has earmarked an investment estimated in hundreds of millions of US dollars. Since then Ethiopia has made a substantial investment in that deal and owns more than 50% of DP World Berbera. We did not hear about any tension between Somalia and UAE. This is a case of double standard. Somalia should see this an opportunity to turn its dusty and rusting away seashores into booming ports. That will not happen with leasing ports to competing military powers and that comes with risks if the military powers decide to duke it out. But with possible peace and stability Ethiopia has all the ingredients to be an economy behemoth in the region. This should be seen and taken as a wake-up call for Somalia. ‘Greater’ this or that never worked and will never materialize.
Ethiopia plan will fail. This mou was just meant to cool down internal political pressure that both abbiye Ahmed and muse behi from somali region of somaliland are facing. It is just to divert people’s attention to something that is impossible, Abby knows that . It just a politics.
This is what BSing looks like 😁 Somalia remains a barely functional state because of the involvement of military investment received from others including Ethiopia that has a significant presence to help keep the Federal Government of Somalia safe and operational. I guess that’s what diminishing status looks like from where you are sitting 😁 I can’t wait to see the Somali people find peace by bringing forward political leaders that thrive in peace rather than conflict. Right now, that’s what you have. #mladdiz
Do you really compare the two scenarios….Go back and listen your leader’s speech then repost your argument….”we want a port by force or by fire” thats how you convince a nation like somalia that you fought with four times and lost all the battles…imam ahmed gurey, Sayid abdullahi hassan, 1964 and 1977…
Beside the two nations have never been in good terms of ethioupias gross misconduct towards its neighbours and somalis have respected them for so long especially because of the fact that there are over 10 million somali ethioupians…..
I suggest Somalia take this as an opportunity and make its vast area of seashore available for port facility investors that includes Ethiopia. The talks that have begun between Somalia and Somaliland should not be interrupted because of this MOU. Somaliland is now what it is, efficiently, peacefully and democratically run entity. It has become the envy of the entire Horn of Africa. My personal preference is somehow it stays with Somalia and its current arrangement of governance in tact. If Somalia turns into a peaceful, stable and democratic nation, the need to stay separated would be a moot point, redundant. But for now, Somaliland is a diplomatic nightmare, something you can’t live with or without it. This is all the result of a serious political error that those decision making leaders in the then British Somaliland committed in 1960.
Egypt and its fiefdom The Arab League have started beating the drums of war as expected. Somalia should take this with a good pinch of salt. Somalis are not Arabs to start with. It should sit down with its black folk neighbors and sort things out with Ethiopia first and foremost respecting the charters of both AU and UN. When someone keeps complaining his country’s sovereignty is being violated should not be the one violating other’s sovereignty.
I also wonder how the people and government of Djibouti have reacted to this MOU. I don’t expect the Ethiopian government officials just jumped on this deal without the knowledge of the leaders of Djibouti. How about the nearby powers of Saudi Arabia and UAE? UAE already has a huge stake in the port of Berbera. This is becoming more and more interesting. Please also note that both Saudi Arabia and UAE have invested in projects worth billions of US dollars in Ethiopia. I am not ready to believe that the officials in Addis/Finfine made this decision without having a sit down with officials in Djibouti, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. I am not also ready to conclude that every official in Addis/Finfine is a mad man!
I may also add my long held admiration to my Djiboutian brothers and sisters for the wise political decision they made in 1977. All glory to them!!!
All this hoopla and silly rage will subside and very few people will remember how it seems intense right now. That is the norm for The HOA. If all the rage in the past had telling consequences Ethiopia should have been all gone by now; Djibouti would have all gone a week after it gained its independence; Eritrea, oh my God, it should have been dead and gone two weeks after it was recognized by the UN and AU. But one thing could have happened if one of the top leaders of the Ethiopian government was born to a mother from the Isaaq clan. Eritrea had Meles on his mother side and the entire went flawless. If there was another top honcho in the then EPRDF born to an Isaaq mother Somaliland could have been a new independent nation to be recognized by The UN and AU right after Eritrea. They just missed the boat just by five minutes. If that was the case we wouldn’t be deafened by this raucous and fake Harimaadee Hana Haban or Hobalo Hoyale from loser reincarnated af-weynes.