Asmara, October 10, 2024 — Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has arrived in Eritrea at the invitation of President Isaias Afwerki. This visit comes as Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia work toward establishing a tripartite military alliance, raising concerns about its impact on regional stability. The discussions are expected to focus on peace in the Horn of Africa, Red Sea security, and other bilateral and regional issues.
Emerging Military Alliance Signals Regional Shifts
The potential alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia comes at a sensitive time for the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian-Eritrean relations, once lauded for their positive trajectory following Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s peace deal with Eritrea in 2018, are now frayed. Flights and phone connections between the two nations have been suspended, signaling a growing diplomatic rift. This emerging tripartite alliance threatens to further alienate Ethiopia, which has seen its relationship with Somalia deteriorate over recent diplomatic conflicts, such as the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Ethiopia’s Isolation: A Stark Contrast to Past Alliances
This new alliance is particularly ironic given Ethiopia’s historical role in fostering relations with both Eritrea and Somalia. Prime Minister Abiy, who helped end a decades-long conflict with Eritrea—a key factor in his Nobel Peace Prize win in 2019—had previously worked closely with President Afwerki and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. The three leaders had regularly met to discuss strengthening ties in the Horn of Africa.
However, recent tensions have put Ethiopia in a difficult position. The country’s relations with Somalia have worsened, especially after reports of Egypt sending military support to Somalia, which Ethiopia views as a direct challenge to its influence in the region. Ethiopia’s government accused Somalia of collaborating with foreign forces to destabilize the region and warned that the situation could escalate if left unchecked.
GERD Nearing Completion: Another Source of Tension
Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), now nearing completion, is another point of contention that complicates regional dynamics. Egypt has long opposed the project, fearing it will reduce its share of Nile waters. Ethiopia, on the other hand, sees GERD as essential for its energy needs and economic development. The dam has been a significant factor in Ethiopia’s strained relationship with Egypt, and Egypt’s increasing military cooperation with Somalia and Eritrea adds another layer of complexity to the already tense situation.
Ongoing Talks in Asmara
Despite these rising tensions, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud are currently in Asmara for talks with President Afwerki. The leaders are expected to hold discussions on a wide range of regional issues, with hopes of addressing some of the conflicts that have strained their relations.
Ethiopia’s Uncertain Position in the Region
As Egypt strengthens its ties with Eritrea and Somalia, Ethiopia finds itself increasingly isolated. The suspension of flights and communications between Ethiopia and Eritrea casts a shadow over the talks in Asmara, highlighting the fragility of their relations. For a country once central to regional peace efforts, Ethiopia is now watching from the sidelines as new alliances form, threatening to reshape the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
As President al-Sisi, President Afwerki, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud hold talks in Asmara, Ethiopia’s future role in the region remains uncertain. The near-completion of GERD, coupled with these evolving military alliances, underscores the complexity of the challenges ahead for the Horn of Africa.
