Yonas Biru, PhD
Extremists in the Oromo and Amhara camps are wreaking havoc over Ethiopia. One can categorize the two as the ኬኛ and የኛ factions of Oromo and Amhara extremists, respectively. Their intractable conflicts reflect uncompromising desires to shape Ethiopia in their respective political theology.
The ኬኛ faction represents extremists both in and outside of PP-Oromo who believe it is Oromo’s turn to assert itself over the Ethiopian political topography. Even though it defends its agenda under the rubric of multi-national federalism where nations and nationalities purportedly live in harmony, that is a snake’s oil salesman version of the story. The truth is, tribalism is like communism. Its doctrines are ideal, but its practices represent hell on earth. Visit the killing fields of Cambodia, ask about the millions who perished under Mao and Stalin, and dare to see and smell the blood drenched and gore marinated lands of Wellega.
Similarly, the የኛcommunity’s goal is to recreate Ethiopia in the image it sees fit. The faction pushes neither an open agenda nor a public strategy. Its political hallmarks are moaning and groaning about the evilness of ኬኛ. The lack of expressed strategy and open agenda is due in part to a preference for a stealth strategy and muted agenda. When one’s political agenda and strategy are unpalatable to other tribes, it makes sense to purse a muted strategy coupled with an aggressive condemnation and absolutist rhetoric against ኬኛ. It is a small wonder the የኛcommunity has failed to build a coalition with other tribes to counter the ኬኛdoctrine that is condemned by all Ethiopians.
This article is a rehash of four articles that I penned in 2018, contending the Southern People region (the only non-tribal region) has the most viable means to defuse the tribal conflict sprouting out of the Amhara-Oromo-Tigray nexus. Since then, TPLF’s suicidal war has reduced Tigrayan extremists from alpha (አውራ) to subordinate (አጋር) tribal colonies, making them part irrelevant and part redundant. The only political opportunity they have is latching onto Oromo extremists. Today, the political conflict’s center of gravity lies squarely on the Amhara-Oromo extremist nexus.
The two warring extremists have PM Abiy as their common target. Extremist Oromos accuse him of representing the second coming of Emperor Menilik. Amhara extremists see him as Jaal Maaroo in disguise. The PM, who holds the middle ground between Amhara and Oromo extremists and proceeds with deliberate caution, is their proxy battle ground for tribal extremism.
Unless nipped in the bud, the race to the bottom between Amhara and Oromo extremists can gather a momentum and reach a tipping point that can push the nation over the cliff. The Southern People, accounting for nearly 20 percent of the population and constituting the third largest group within in the constitutional structure should not remain a passive observer. There are constitutional grounds that allow it to shift the center of gravity away from the Amhara-Oromo extremist nexus and alter the power balance by changing the political alignment across the tribal homelands. This can create a new paradigm and lay a foundational base upon which a nationalist coalition would subsequently be built.
The ኬኛFaction of PP-Oromo
The ኬኛ Faction of PP-Oromo sees the PM standing in the way of creating an Oromo hegemony. The faction is particularly unnerved by the PM’s plan to change the political governance to a presidential system that conflicts with the essence of the nation’s tribal governance. Their strategy is to throw sand in his reform machine. Shimeles Abdisa’s string of polarizing public remarks from “breaking the backbone of Neftegnas [read Amhara]” to “transforming Ethiopia using the Oromo Geda system” to “making Oromo the most important nation in Africa” are telling examples.
Adanech Abebe’s decision to change the century old venue for the Adwa celebration away from Emperor Menilik’s statue squarely aligns her with Shimeles. Her recent video in which she came across more as an extremist Oromo tribalist than as a Mayor of Addis Ababa signals that she is a contender for the ኬኛ faction’s leadership and ready to challenge the PM. The primary issue in the video involved her controversial decision to have the Oromo tribal flag in Addis Ababa public schools and require Addis Ababa students to sing the Oromo national anthem.
Three important points are noteworthy. First, her decision was done in flagrant violation of the Constitution that promulgates: “The city of Addis Ababa shall have complete powers of self- administration”; and “The administration of the city of Addis Ababa shall be accountable to the Federal Government.” There is no logical or constitutional explanation to force Addis Ababians to fly the Oromo flag and sing the Oromo anthem other than the desire to adhere to the ኬኛ theology.
Second, her statements in the video reflected total disregard for the PM who criticized her ብሽሽቅ ፖለቲካ (petty politics) and impressed upon her to focus her energy on constructive policies. He specifically made it clear she needs to stop what he called the “አከም አከም አከም” petty politics, referring to using language as a political tool.
Third, her statement that “the Constitution promulgates Addis Ababa as the capital city of Oromia” is used to throw the proverbial red meat for Oromo extremists. Her claim is nowhere to be found in the Ethiopian Constitution. It is, however, in the amended Oromo tribal Constitution. The message was clear that Addis Ababa will be partly governed by the Oromo tribal Constitution.
The fact that the mayor was outside of her legal authority to force her ኬኛ sentiment on Addis Ababa public schools is not the only relevant issue. Equally relevant is that the PM is struggling to resolve the national political crisis caused by the string of mass murders in Wellega. Why inject another polarizing petty politics in the nation’s body politics? Why destabilize an already destabilized nation? These are questions in need of explanations, considering Adanech is a high-level official of the governing party.
There are two possible motives driving her. The first and most plausible explanation is that she wants to weaken the PM until he abandons his Ethiopianist agenda or to force relinquish his position. Her ambition and support from extremist Oromo camps make her the heir apparent to the PM’s crown. The second possible explanation is that her contempt to the Amhara is stronger than her allegiance to the PM and that she is willing to risk it all by instigating conflicts. Either way, the mayor is bad news for Ethiopia.
The Anti ኬኛand Pro የኛAmhara Extremists
Oromo extremists are not alone in putting the PM in a “damn if you do and damn if you don’t” political position. Amhara extremists bill the PM’s refusal to immediately outlaw the tribal constitution as a desire to keep the current political system as a permanent feature of the Ethiopian political landscape.
They understand abruptly abolishing a long-institutionalized Constitution and deeply entrenched political structure is bound to galvanize an enormous counter movement at the time the nation is in an all-out crisis mode. They know newly minted tribal lands such as Afar, Somali, Benishangul, Sidama and Gambella may not like the Oromo ኬኛ project, but there is no indication that they will be happy to lose their autonomous status.
Remember that each tribal land is ruled by a President, not a governor. There was a reason why they are Presidents and why the Constitution bestows the sovereign power on “nations and nationalities”. Only a blind extremist or a dam ass fool would demand abolishing the Constitution
at this juncture in our history. That would be akin to equipping tribalist forces with a full tank fuel and a lighter.
For Amhara extremists, the new tribal lands’ political desires are details they do not bother with. They want the PM to constitutionalize the Amhara genre of Ethiopia as if he is a King. They are vehemently anti-ኬኛ and just as vehemently pro-የኛ. As part of their political calculus, they tie the PM with Oromo extremists at the hip. They link the Wellega mass killings as part of the PM’s grand strategy to cleanse the Oromo tribal land of Ethiopians of Amhara origin. Moreover, they see the “አከም አከም አከም” petty politics as silver bullet evidence of his plan to establish an Oromo political hegemony in Addis Ababa and beyond.
It would not be an overstatement to say they spend 95 percent of their energy weaponizing every conflict large and small to demonize and delegitimize the PM as the architect of the ኬኛ theology. When was the last time, for example, you have heard Ethio-360 broadcasting a pragmatic and solution-oriented discussion? How about the likes of Meskerem Abera and Eskinder Nega? I do not want to list clownish characters like Zemene Kassie, but many there are.
Anyone who calls for a pragmatic and solution-oriented discourse faces the wrath of the conflict hawker class. Once, I called out anchors of Ethio-360 as “conflict peddler high-octane fools”. They did not know how to take a constructive and legitimate criticism. Two of the Anchors, Habtamu and Ermias, took turns to attack me in a 40-minute-long geopolitical segment of their program. The
40-minute segment was exclusively focused on me, labeling me “as the most dangerous man in the
Ethiopian current politics.” I guess I was their geo-politics for the day.
In a sort of a subversive way, Amhara politics has become a wonder land where the extreme is the mainstream, and the fringe is the hinge of the political axis. Small wonder the Amhara political market has become native to Talibanized extremists, minus Taliban’s signature long beard and black turban. Give credit where credit is due. At least Jaal Marroo has the beard. Soon enough the turban will grow on his head. I weep for Ethiopia. You should, too.
Sadly, the Amhara and Oromo extremists have the PM in a chock hold. This is a dangerous development for two reasons. First, the two extremists are hard to reconcile because their conflicts are not only political but also psycho-psychological. Second, the two serve as fuel for each other’s fire, and ignite and sustain inspiration for each other’s political drive. One cannot exist without the other just like one cannot kill the other without killing itself in the process. We need to save both from each other to save Ethiopia from them.
Shifting the Nation’s Conflict Away From the ኬኛ/የኛCenter of Gravity
Three weeks ago, in one of my articles I put the onus to deal with the Oromo-Amhara extremism on the PM and the silent majority on the Amhara tribal land. The article focused on the PM’s dysfunctional administration and his refusal to seek advice and guidance from subject matter experts, choosing instead to surround himself with “yes-sir” gofers. It also argued the silent majority in the Amhara tribal land has historical obligation to rein in its extremist factions.
I have no evidence, but seemingly, in response to my criticism ሙኃዘ ጥበባት ዲያቆን ዳንኤል gave interview in which he pushed back stating the PM calls and consults people from ሊስትሮእስከትልልቅልሂቃን both at home and abroad. I happen to be one of the people who has received a call from the PM. With all due respect to the ሙኃዝ, Ethiopia is in a crisis and, as my children would say, it is time to “stop craping the crap” Simply put, let us be serious and honest. The PM is a phenomenally gifted visionary. He is also an utterly poor executive who runs the nation as his own pet project.
This article focuses on the Southern People region as a prominent player to systematically increase the political influence of small tribes and to defuse the conflict in the Oromo-Amhara extremist nexus. The strategy is to remedy fundamental constitutional flaws that have disenfranchised small tribes of their constitutional rights and protections. The aim is to empower small tribes, using political Jujitsu – employing your adversary’s weight against itself. It allows us to shift the political conflict from “Federalist vs. Unitary (አሃዳዊ)” to “Empowering Small Tribes vs. Disenfranchising Small Tribes.” In one bullet we can kill both theologies of ኬኛand የኛ.
The Constitution Denies Small Tribes Equal Rights
The Ethiopian Constitution is billed and marketed as a constitution that establishes the rights of all tribes large and small. In practice, the Constitution has three different classes of tribes with different levels of constitutional rights and protections. The first class consists of Tigray, Afar, Amara, Oromia, Somali, Benshangul-Gumaz, Gambela, and Harari Peoples. They are fully recognized and granted constitutional rights to govern themselves.
The second class is the Southern Peoples Region. Southern Peoples is the only region in the Constitution that is not a tribal land. It can be referred to as the constitution’s miscellaneous region. The region is a square peg that does not fit into the philosophical underpinnings of the tribal constitution’s circle.
Its establishment was an afterthought and driven by a desire to form an economically viable region. The larger tribes within the region such as Sidama, Wolaita, Hadiya and Gurage each has more population than Afar, Benishangul, Gambella and Harari People. Yet, they were not given Autonomy to administer themselves.
Their rights to form their own autonomous region was stripped to form a region, consisting of a hotchpotch of dozens of smaller tribes. Since smaller tribes are not economically viable to exist on their own, the larger tribes were forced to serve as their constitutionally sanctioned adoptive partners. Recently, Sidama relinquished its ጉዲፈቻ responsibility and made itself a free tribal land and upgraded itself to be a member of the first-call tribal colony.
The third class consists of two dozen small tribes that the Constitution does not even recognize by name. The only place they are included in the Constitution (without being mentioned) is in Articles
61 and 62, as members of the Council of Federation. Though the Council of Federation is a legislative body (often compared to the US Senate), it has no legislative power. It is denied legislative power to enact or block the enactment of laws.
Among duties mandated to the Council includes to “perform functions assigned to it” by the House of Peoples’ Representatives. As an additional layer of control, the Council’s budget is subject to the approval of the House of the Peoples’ Representatives.
Section 1 of article 8 of the Constitution promulgates “sovereignty resides in the nations, nationalities and peoples of Ethiopia.” Pay attention to “Peoples.” The Peoples are an amalgam of different people from different nations and nationalities. The Ethiopian constitution is the only constitution on this side of Mars that treats it citizens as different peoples of different nations.
Section 2 adds “This Constitution is an expression of their sovereignty.” But the constitution does not acknowledge two dozen nations and nationalities by name. Members of these tribes have neither constitutional sovereignty as people nor Constitutional protection as tribes.
The Reason Behind the Constitutional Disenfranchisement of Small Tribes
The purpose of the tribal Constitution is supposed to be to protect the languages and cultures of all tribes. If this was indeed true, one would assume more emphasis should have been given to smaller and weaker tribes. But this was not the case because the Constitution was not born out of an
endogenous process inherent in the social fabrics of the nation. It was conceived and architected to create a hegemonic Tigray.
The architects of the tribal Constitution were cognizant that small tribes are natural allies to Pan- Ethiopian forces. They understood that smaller tribes find it in their best interest to have a united Ethiopia for various reasons.
First, small tribes know that they cannot form a viable independent nation by themselves and their survival as a free and prosperous people depends on their ability to live with others. Article 39 has no meaning for them what-so-ever. Far from protecting them from majority tyranny, it represents a threat to their very existence.
Assume the Oromo tribal land decides to declare independence from the rest of Ethiopia, exercising its sovereign right enshrined in Article 39. This will geographically separate the Gambella tribal land and the Southern Peoples region from the rest of Ethiopia. Ethiopians in Gambella who wish to travel to the Amhara tribal land will have to get visa from the newly independent Oromia or the good old Sudan. A Gurage or Sidama from Southern People region who wishes to travel to the Somali tribal land will have to get visa from Kenya or Oromia.
This accords Oromo politicians a unique leverage to hold the country hostage in political negotiations because of their ability not only to break away from Ethiopia with its capital city, but also to geographically break the Gambella tribal land and the Southern Peoples region from their motherland – Ethiopia.
A Tribal Constitution Without a Judicial Branch
In most democratic nations, governments are composed of three separate and equal branches: legislative (parliament/congress), executive (president/prime minister), and judicial (a supreme court that serves as the highest court of the land). By design each of the three branch is made independent and equally empowered to create a system of checks and balances.
When it functions as designed, this “checks and balances” system maintains a steady balance of power between the three branches and animates each branch to function properly. But alas, Ethiopia does not have a judicial branch within the paradigm of a three-branch constitutional governance structure. This has two serious implications.
First, small tribes cannot take the federal government or regional governments to court to demand equal constitutional rights and protections. According to the Constitution, the Council of Federation serves as the pseudo judicial body. Though there is a supposedly independent judiciary, it cannot make binding decisions. It sends its recommendation to the Council of Federation that may or may not accept it.
The Constitution has deliberately denied small tribes a constitutionally sanctioned independent judicial process to seek remedies. Assume for example, smaller tribes wish to challenge the budget allocation process that makes them dependent on the House of the Peoples’ Representatives. Assume also, as the pseudo-Judicial body, the Council of Federation rules the arrangement is wrong and recommends a constitutional amendment. But any constitutional amendment is decided by a joint session of the House of the Peoples’ Representative and the Council of Federation. Remember the House of the Peoples’ Representative has more members than the House of Federation. That means the House of the Peoples’ Representative will have more weight in the final decision. In effect, the House of the Peoples’ Representatives becomes both the defendant and the highest court of the land to make the final judgement.
It is like an animated constitutional cartoon made for entertainment, except for the fact that there is nothing entertaining about it. Ethiopians are locked in a terrifying existence. Legally, they exist between neither and nor in the constitutional hinterland of tribal jurisprudence. Politically, they live in terror between tribal human hunters and temporary shelters. It is this Constitution that the Jawars and Debretsions of the tribal universe try to tell us that the problem is in the implementation process not in the Constitutional tenets.
Shifting the Center of Gravity of Tribal Conflict from ኬኛ/የኛto Smaller Tribes
In the short-term, the most viable strategy is to adopt the US Federalist System, without prejudice to the people’s right to seek a long-term solution at a future time. During the US Constitution Convention, in 1787, the most contentious issue was how the States (Provinces) should be represented in the two Chamber US Congress. The large states insisted representation in both chambers should be determined based on the population size of each state.
The small states demanded each state should get equal seats in both chambers. They felt that was the only way their voices will be heard, and they will not be railroaded by bigger states. They demanded ironclad constitutional protection from majority tyranny. For them, California and
Texas were more like Oromo and Amhara tribal lands. They believed having equal constitutional power was the only way that would protect them from larger states.
The argument came close to leading to irreconcilable conflicts that people feared could break the US into two separate groups. Ultimately, they agreed on what is called the “Great Compromise” or the “Connecticut Compromise.” The compromise was that in the US House of Representatives (Lower Chamber) representation will be by the size of the population. In the US Senate (Upper Chamber), each state, regardless of its population, landmass or economic size would get the same seat (two seats each).
According to the agreement, the State of California (currently with more than 40 million population) has 53 representatives in the House of Representatives. In contrast, the state of Wyoming (population 560,000) has one representative. In the Senate, California and Wyoming has two Senators each.
More importantly, the Senate was made far more powerful than the House of Representatives to protect smaller states. For example, the authority to appointment high-level officials such as Supreme Court Judges, Secretaries (Ministers) and other high-level US Officials is with the President. But it is the Senate that confirms them. It is not uncommon for the Senate to reject appointed officials, requiring the President to nominate an alternative candidate.
Under such an arrangement, the Senate protects smaller states from bigger states. If, for example, the big states in the House of Representative use their number to pass a law that negatively affects smaller states, representatives of smaller states will reject it at the Senate and send it back for a revision or return it with proposed amendments for final approval. No law will pass without both chambers agreeing.
Most importantly, smaller states have the protection of last resort: The US Supreme Court that is fully independent and its decision is final without appeal.
A New Paradigm
Empowering smaller tribes with equal constitutional rights and protections will change Ethiopia’s political paradigm. This is a poison pill for the likes of Jawar and Debretsion. If they reject the demand for equal constitutional rights and protections for smaller tribes, it shows their justification
for tribe-based federation is a charade. If they agree and empower small tribes in the Upper
Chamber, that will be the beginning of the weakening, if not the end of, tribal extremism.
Giving equal representation to all tribes will shift the center of gravity of the nation’s political conflict away from the ኬኛ and የኛ conflict nexus. The nation’s politics will be governed by negotiation and debates between the Lower and Upper Chambers. Neither Amhara nor Oromo can get its way around without winning the support of smaller tribes at the Upper Chamber. All tribal lands outside of the Amhara-Oromo space will be empowered and the power balance and alignment will be altered.
More importantly, the nationalist sentiment in the Upper Chamber will have a much stronger gravitate than the tribalist sentiment in the lower chamber in establishing the center of gravity of national politics.
Now the question is why smaller tribes are not demanding equality under the Constitution. They must collectively call for an empowered Upper chamber and an independent judicial branch. Addis Ababians will be their first natural allies. Let us do political Jujitsu.
