As the 2024 U.S. presidential race intensifies, Ethiopia finds itself at a pivotal juncture, grappling with internal reforms and escalating regional tensions. The recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea, has exacerbated relations with Somalia, which views the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty. Concurrently, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns has made multiple visits to Somalia, including a recent trip last week, underscoring the region’s strategic importance.
In this context, the potential foreign policy approaches of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris warrant close examination, particularly concerning Ethiopia’s economic development, geopolitical positioning, democratic progress, and relations with neighboring countries.
Economic Engagement: Divergent Approaches
Donald Trump: During his presidency, Trump’s “America First” policy led to a reduction in foreign aid to African nations, including Ethiopia. His administration’s focus on countering China’s influence often resulted in limited direct economic assistance to African countries. Ethiopia, which has benefited from Chinese infrastructure investments, might find a Trump administration less supportive of its economic ambitions.
Kamala Harris: Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s emphasis on developmental aid and partnerships in Africa. Her approach would likely support Ethiopia’s economic development through initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), fostering trade and investment. This strategy aligns with Ethiopia’s goals of poverty alleviation and infrastructure development.
Geopolitical Positioning: Balancing Regional Dynamics
Donald Trump: Trump’s foreign policy was characterized by transactional relationships, which could strain Ethiopia’s diplomatic balancing act, especially given its ties with China. His administration’s limited engagement in African multilateral institutions might leave Ethiopia navigating regional challenges with less U.S. support.
Kamala Harris: Harris would likely adopt a multilateral approach, engaging with African nations through collaborative frameworks. This strategy could help Ethiopia manage its regional relationships, including the delicate dynamics with Somalia and Somaliland, by promoting dialogue and cooperation.
Democratic Progress: Support and Scrutiny
Donald Trump: The Trump administration often deprioritized democracy and human rights in favor of strategic interests. Ethiopia might experience less external pressure on democratic reforms under a Trump presidency, allowing for greater autonomy but potentially missing opportunities for constructive support.
Kamala Harris: Harris is expected to prioritize governance and human rights, offering support for Ethiopia’s democratic reforms. Her administration would likely encourage transparent governance and human rights protections, aligning with Ethiopia’s ongoing political transformation.
Relations with Egypt: The GERD Dispute
Donald Trump: Trump’s overt support for Egypt in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute strained U.S.-Ethiopia relations. His administration’s stance was perceived as undermining Ethiopia’s sovereignty over the Nile, leading to diplomatic tensions.
Kamala Harris: Harris would likely support a diplomatic resolution to the GERD dispute, encouraging negotiations that respect Ethiopia’s development needs while addressing Egypt’s concerns. This balanced approach could improve Ethiopia’s relations with both Egypt and the U.S.
Regional Security: The Somalia Factor
The recent MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland has heightened tensions with Somalia, which views the agreement as an infringement on its territorial integrity. The situation is further complicated by the CIA Director’s multiple visits to Somalia, including a recent trip last week, highlighting U.S. concerns over regional stability.
Donald Trump: Trump’s administration focused on counterterrorism efforts in Somalia, including military interventions against Al-Shabaab. However, his decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia in 2020 left a security vacuum that affected regional stability, impacting Ethiopia’s security interests.
Kamala Harris: Harris is expected to support multilateral security initiatives in Somalia, collaborating with African Union peacekeeping missions and providing developmental aid. This approach aligns with Ethiopia’s interest in a stable Somalia and could help de-escalate tensions arising from the MoU with Somaliland.
The Ethiopian Diaspora: A Bridge Between Nations
The Ethiopian diaspora in the U.S. plays a significant role in shaping bilateral relations. Many Ethiopian Americans advocate for policies that support Ethiopia’s development and sovereignty. Harris’s potential emphasis on partnership and support for democratic reforms may resonate with the diaspora’s aspirations for their homeland. In contrast, Trump’s transactional approach might be viewed with skepticism, especially given past tensions over issues like the GERD dispute.
A Strategic Choice
Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, with its future influenced by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Kamala Harris’s approach, emphasizing partnership, economic development, and support for democratic reforms, appears more aligned with Ethiopia’s current needs and aspirations. Her policies could help Ethiopia navigate regional tensions, including those with Somalia, and foster a more stable and prosperous future. Conversely, Donald Trump’s focus on transactional relationships and past support for Egypt in the GERD dispute may pose challenges for Ethiopia’s diplomatic and economic objectives. As the election approaches, Ethiopia and its diaspora will be closely monitoring the candidates’ positions, understanding that the next U.S. administration will play a pivotal role in shaping the nation’s path forward.
