Addressing the Root Cause: Why Ethiopia Must Abandon Ethnic Federalism for National Unity

Bedilu Mulualem

This is a follow-up of my rejoinder: Critique of Messay Kebede’s “Elites’ Power Grab Contra People’s Empowerment”

Based on lived experience and root cause analysis, Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism, instituted under the 1995 constitution, has exacerbated divisions, triggered conflicts, and undermined the practice of democracy and the protection of individual rights. By promoting a false narrative that casts the Amhara as oppressors who unfairly benefited at the expense of others, this system has fractured the nation along ethnic lines, granted ethnic groups a constitutional right to secession, and perpetuated exclusion, economic stagnation, and persistent violence. Retaining ethnic federalism and its ethnic-based boundaries will not prevent Ethiopia’s disintegration, nor can this system of ethnic apartheid be transformed into a democratic framework. With each passing day, Ethiopia moves closer to collapse as ethnic animosity grows, violence continues, and national unity erodes. To secure Ethiopia’s survival and lay the groundwork for democracy, the deep root causes of these challenges—ethnic federalism and its constitutional foundation—must be abolished. This is why:

1. Ethnic Federalism is Inherently Exclusionary and Fuels Conflict

Ethnic federalism is inherently divisive and exclusionary. Although the Constitution nominally stipulates the protection of individual rights, in practice, it prioritizes group rights, fostering exclusion rather than inclusion. Ethnic boundaries create divides based on the vague, imaginary, and contentious categorization of “nations, nationalities, and peoples”—terms with no clear or distinctive meanings. These boundaries deepen mistrust and animosity. Given Ethiopia’s long history of population movement and integration, ethnic boundaries cannot be mutually exclusive and are inevitably contentious. Areas such as Woqait, Raya, Dera, Addis Ababa, Moyale, and Dire Dawa exemplify how ethnic-based boundaries fuel disputes and violence.

Since 1991, Ethiopia has experienced escalating ethnic conflicts, including mass displacement, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. Atrocities in Oromia, Benishangul, Somali, Tigray, and Amhara regions illustrate how ethnic loyalties are prioritized over citizenship, undermining national unity and fostering instability. The constitution’s provision for secession compounds these problems by allowing regions to threaten or pursue separation at will, further destabilizing the nation.

The claim that Oromos, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, benefits from ethnic federalism is deeply flawed. It relies on unreliable census data and the false assumption that most Oromos support or benefit from the system. In reality, ordinary Oromos, like other ethnic groups, endure widespread unrest, fear, and poverty under ethnic federalism. 

Some argue that abandoning ethnic federalism could lead to further instability. For instance, Professor Messay Kebede has cautioned against reverting to Ethiopia’s imperial system. However, this concern misrepresents the issue. Advocates for reform are not calling for a return to a unitary state but rather for a federal system that avoids dividing the country along ethnic lines.

Most nations worldwide operate under unitary systems that respect individual rights, foster national unity, and uphold democracy. A unitary system is not inherently problematic; in fact, it is a widely adopted form of governance. Countries often choose a unitary system when its advantages outweigh the challenges of a federal or decentralized system.

In Ethiopia’s case, however, a more effective federal system could address inequities and development needs through democratic processes, equitable resource distribution, and the promotion of ethnic languages and cultures—without institutionalizing division and mistrust.

2. Failure to Benefit Ordinary Citizens

While ethnic elites exploit ethnic federalism for personal gain, ordinary citizens—whether Oromo, Somali, Tigrayan, Amhara, etc—have seen no tangible benefits. For instance, TPLF leaders and generals embezzled billions, yet ordinary Tigrayans suffered immensely during the war, with nearly a million lives lost and millions displaced. A poor mother who lost her children to the Tigray war grieves deeply for the rest of her life, while the children of TPLF generals enjoy a luxurious lifestyle in the United States. Similarly, the ongoing struggles of ordinary Oromos and Amharas illustrate the failure of ethnic federalism to provide peace, security, or economic opportunity. The system is designed to perpetuate violence, poverty, and fear, while enriching corrupt elites.  Infighting among ethnic elites, such as within the TPLF and Oromo political factions, reveals that their primary concern is not the welfare of their constituents but the preservation of their power.

3. Ethnic Federalism Threatens Ethiopia’s Survival

Ethnic federalism has brought Ethiopia closer to disintegration. Ethnic animosities have intensified, and national unity continues to erode. Contrary to claims that the system prevents disintegration, history since 1991 has demonstrated that ethnic federalism accelerates the nation’s fragmentation. Its undemocratic nature ensures that conflicts cannot be resolved peacefully, resulting in perpetual civil wars and the erosion of Ethiopia’s sovereignty.

No matter which ethnic group holds power—whether Meles from Tigray, Hailemariam from Wolayta, or Abiy from Oromia—the outcomes remain the same: ethnic cleansing, genocide, corruption, and economic stagnation. The problem is systemic, not merely one of leadership or implementation. 

4. Institutionalized Discrimination and Corruption

Ethnic federalism institutionalizes discrimination and corruption. Public institutions, including the judiciary, parliament, defense, law enforcement, and educational systems, etc. serve ethnic elites rather than the Ethiopian people. This undermines meritocracy and creates systemic discrimination against minorities within regional states, leading to evictions, ethnic cleansing, and war. There is no accountability. In practice, the prioritization of group rights over individual rights leaves minorities unprotected, eroding public trust and making democracy unattainable.

5. Suppression of Civic and Political Freedoms

Ethnic federalism stifles reasoned discourse, free expression, and civic engagement. Human rights organizations, activists, and political parties face severe restrictions under a system that prioritizes ethnic allegiances over democratic principles. Government institutions and media play a significant role in indoctrinating youth to accept ethnic divisions, suppressing critical thinking, and discouraging meaningful democratic participation.

This system has institutionalized ethnic division within the education sector and society at large. Youth are systematically taught to identify primarily with their ethnicity rather than as citizens of a unified Ethiopia. As Lencho Letta, one of the founders of the OLF, publicly admitted, the OLF leadership had to fabricate an enemy to advance ethnic agendas.   Similarly, his colleague Lencho Bati, an Ambassador under Abiy’s regime, acknowledged that they had to deconstruct Ethiopia in order to construct Oromia.    Moreover, ethnic elites—including professors teaching at Western universities—often fabricate falsehoods, distort census data, manipulate historical facts, and incite conflicts.

Asafa Jalata and Dr. Abbas Haji Ganamo claimed that “between 1868 and 1900, half of all Oromo were killed, around 5 million people.” A rational person would first question whether there were 10 million Oromos during that period. This claim is a blatant falsehood that undermines the credibility of both individuals and tarnishes the reputation of the academic institutions with which they are associated.

Academics have a responsibility to approach claims with skepticism, critically examine sources, and verify their accuracy. Debunking such assertions requires only a basic understanding of historical population trends. In 1950, Ethiopia’s total population was 18 million. Since then, the Ethiopian population has grown at an average annual rate of approximately 2.7%. Based on this historical data and retrospective analysis, the estimated total population of Ethiopia in 1887 would have been between three and four million.

By perpetuating this inflammatory falsehood, Dr. Abbas Haji Ganamo and Asafa Jalata appear to be deliberately sowing division and unrest in Ethiopia, further deepening tensions within the country.

Some also claim that the majority of Ethiopians are Oromos, yet the 1984 census indicates that ethnic Oromos and ethnic Amharas were nearly equal in population. Oromos accounted for 29.068%, while Amharas made up 28.288%.

The issue of land ownership in Ethiopia also was not unique to the Oromos. Amhara and other regions faced similar challenges before the 1974 revolution, as revealed in a recent book by Professor Alemante GebreSelassie, one of the architects of the land reform.

It is impossible to persuade individuals with facts and reason when they deliberately distort the truth. These individuals misuse their academic credentials to propagate false narratives and incite violence, further entrenching ethnic divisions and hostility.

Such actions perpetuate an atmosphere of division, suspicion, and animosity, which undermines the foundations of democracy, equal rights, and national unity. Most of today’s ethnic political leaders and activists have been deeply influenced and indoctrinated by false narratives entrenched since the inception of the current system, making reasoned, fact-based dialogue exceedingly difficult. Instead of fostering a shared sense of citizenship, ethnic federalism reinforces barriers that are incompatible with a democratic and inclusive society.

6. Suppression of Political Opposition and Civil Society

Opposition parties face restrictions, harassment, neutralization, and even violence, while human rights and civic organizations are blocked from monitoring or reporting abuse. This stifling of dissent is incompatible with democratic governance, which requires the free contestation of ideas and leadership. Ethnic federalism entrenches elites in power, rendering peaceful reform nearly impossible. These elites resist change to safeguard their privileges, often responding to reconciliation efforts with violence. Initiatives like the National Dialogue are unlikely to succeed, as ethnic politicians—such as those in the Oromo Prosperity Party—are already undermining the commission’s efforts by introducing divisive and conflict-ridden demands.

7. Economic Stagnation and Inequality

Ethnic federalism hampers economic development. Resources, land, and opportunities are controlled by dominant ethnic groups in each region, leaving minorities marginalized. In present-day Ethiopia, land has been assigned an ethnic identity.  Citizens’ movements are often restricted, and labor does not move freely among regions.  At times, Amharas were even prohibited from entering Addis Ababa. Corrupt elites exploit this system for personal gain, while investments are discouraged due to insecurity and instability. Incidents like the destruction of Haile Gebreselassie’s hotel in Shashemene exemplify the economic risks posed by ethnic politics.

8. Lack of Accountability and the Impossibility of Peaceful Change

The ethnic federal structure allows criminals to evade justice by retreating to ethnic enclaves, effectively creating a shield of impunity. For instance, no one has been held accountable for the war crimes committed in Tigray or the massacres in Oromia and Benishangul; instead, perpetrators have been rewarded. Ethnic politicians, including those in the highest federal offices, exploit their ethnic constituencies to intimidate the public and perpetuate violence. Their allegiance often lies with their ethnic group rather than with all Ethiopians they are meant to serve. This is evident in Abiy Ahmed’s remark to the Parliament during an alleged coup attempt, when he stated, “They were coming from Burayu፣ Sebeta, Legetafo (towns in Oromia) to defend their leader.” “ ከቡራዩ፣ ከሰበታ፣ ከለገጣፎ አርሶ አደር ወጣት፣ ተደራጅቶ እየመጣ ነበር ሊዋጋ፣ መንግስታችን ተነክቷል ብሎ።” Similarly, ethnic violence and massacres—such as those in Shashemene and other towns in Oromia that claimed over 80 lives following Jawar Mohammed’s social media posts—and the attack on Ethiopian defense forces in Tigray underscore how ethnic allegiances are manipulated to justify violence.

These crimes, committed in the name of ethnic groups—abstract entities that cannot be held accountable in court—expose the systemic flaws and inherent injustices of ethnic federalism. This system entrenches elites in power, making peaceful reform nearly impossible. Elites resist change to preserve their privileges, often responding to reconciliation efforts with hostility and violence. Attempts to redraw boundaries or foster unity are met with fierce opposition, as ethnic loyalty is prioritized over national interests.

The impunity afforded to ethnic politicians enables them to commit crimes, from ethnic cleansing to war crimes, with little fear of accountability. This perpetuates conflict and instability, as vividly demonstrated by the Tigray war and the ongoing violence in Benishangul. Ethnic federalism, by design, fosters impunity and undermines efforts to achieve national cohesion and stability.

9. A Better Path Forward: Unity Without Ethnic Divisions

Ethiopia must transition to a federal system not based on ethnic divisions. Professor Assefa Mihretu’s proposal, along with similar suggestions for federal administrative regions based on economic and social factors, offers a promising alternative. Respect for individual rights—such as language, culture, and equitable access to resources—can be safeguarded without resorting to ethnic-based governance. A system founded on shared democratic values, meritocracy, equity, inclusion, and the rule of law would foster national unity, stability, and lasting peace.

Conclusion: The Case for Abandoning the Ethnic Federalism and Divisive Constitution

Ethnic federalism is inherently exclusionary and fundamentally incompatible with democracy, individual rights, and national unity. It has deepened divisions, fueled conflict, and allowed corrupt elites to prosper at the expense of ordinary Ethiopians. Ethiopia can no longer bear the weight of this apartheid system. What makes Ethiopia unique enough to justify maintaining an ethnic apartheid system? This structure and the divisive constitution are beyond reform or democratization and must be entirely abolished before it is too late. The nation’s future depends on breaking free from the constraints of ethnic apartheid and creating a governance system based on unity, equality, fairness, and inclusivity. Only through this can Ethiopia achieve unity, lasting peace, true democracy, and prosperity for all its citizens.  To overcome the current crisis, Ethiopians must unite and reclaim their nation from self-serving ethnic opportunists.