Ethiopia has long been striving to transform its agricultural sector, and in recent years, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has championed a major push for wheat self-sufficiency. His government claims that the country, once synonymous with famine, has not only met its domestic wheat needs but is also exporting surplus grain. If true, this would represent a remarkable achievement for a nation that relied on wheat imports for nearly a quarter of its consumption just a few years ago.
However, an investigation by The Economist suggests that Ethiopia’s wheat revolution may not be as groundbreaking as official figures suggest. The government claims that wheat production soared from 15.1 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 23 million tonnes the following year, placing Ethiopia among the world’s top wheat producers. Yet, independent estimates tell a different story. The African Development Bank (AfDB) puts Ethiopia’s 2023-24 wheat output at just 7.5 million tonnes, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated it at 5.8 million tonnes for 2022-23.
The discrepancy in numbers is hard to ignore, especially as Ethiopia reportedly ceased wheat imports nearly four years ago. Yet, USDA data shows that private traders imported 400,000 tonnes of wheat in the first five months of 2024 alone—57% more than during the same period in 2023. The country imported 1.4 million tonnes of wheat last year while exporting just 150,000 tonnes, further raising doubts about its self-sufficiency claims.
A deeper look into Ethiopia’s wheat strategy reveals ambitious state-led interventions, including the promotion of “cluster farms,” where smallholder farmers work collectively in large, mechanized operations. The government has also invested heavily in irrigation, provided subsidized fertilizers, and waived taxes on machinery imports. While these efforts have certainly boosted production, they may not justify the figures being presented.
The controversy extends beyond numbers. In 2022, the Ethiopian government replaced the head of its statistical agency with a ruling party loyalist, allegedly after concerns were raised about inflated production estimates. Official figures published by Ethiopia’s central bank—mirroring external estimates of 5.8 million tonnes in 2022-23—were quietly removed from its website after The Economist inquired about them. The government later dismissed this as a “human error.”
Beyond statistical inconsistencies, concerns persist about the long-term sustainability of Ethiopia’s wheat drive. A focus on wheat monocropping could degrade soil quality, potentially harming future yields. Meanwhile, the pressure on farmers to meet high production targets raises fears of resistance, a factor that has played a role in past political upheavals.
If Ethiopia’s wheat success story is overstated, it raises serious questions not just for Ethiopians but for international organizations and African nations hoping to replicate its model. The FAO has praised Ethiopia’s progress, and the African Development Bank has commended its agricultural gains, but neither institution fully endorses the government’s production numbers. Even billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has recognized Ethiopia’s agricultural strides, though his foundation declined to comment on the figures.
Meanwhile, Russia has become a key player in Africa’s wheat imports. Between July 2024 and February 2025, Ethiopia, alongside Nigeria, Tanzania, and Mozambique, is expected to import a significant amount of wheat from Russia. In fact, African countries collectively imported 18 million tonnes of Russian wheat, making up over 50% of Russia’s total wheat exports.
For Ethiopia, credibility matters. If the government’s wheat claims are exaggerated, it could undermine trust in future economic reports and discourage investment in the agricultural sector. More importantly, millions of Ethiopians still rely on food aid—16 million in 2024, according to the World Food Programme. If Ethiopia were truly self-sufficient in wheat, such a high level of food insecurity would be difficult to explain.
